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Concerns are rising over a potential stock market correction, with forecasts suggesting declines of up to 16% for the S&P 500 this year. Analysts highlight key technical levels, including a crucial Fibonacci support at 5,130, as indicators of market health, while deteriorating breadth measures signal possible downturns. Despite a bullish outlook for 2025, historical trends suggest a correction is overdue after two strong years.
Dow futures remained stable as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision following a nine-day losing streak for the index, its longest since 1978. With a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, investors are also focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for future guidance. Market performance on Fed days has been notably weaker under Powell compared to previous chairs, with most sectors closing in the red, except for consumer discretionary, which gained 0.28%.
Stock futures are mostly flat as investors await key inflation data, with Dow futures up 18 points and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each rising 0.1%. Economists expect November's consumer price index to increase by 0.3% from October and 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually. Market participants are in a "waiting mode" ahead of the data, with concerns about inflation impacting trading momentum.
Major U.S. indexes achieved significant gains in November, with the S&P 500 rising 5.73% and the Dow Jones up 7.54%, marking their best monthly performance of the year. Positive economic indicators, including growth in China's factory activity and a favorable U.S. jobs report on the horizon, have bolstered investor sentiment. The market's momentum is expected to continue into December, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to 6,300, reflecting a 32.1% increase for 2024.
Major U.S. indexes fell sharply, driven down by Big Tech losses, with Microsoft, Meta, and Apple disappointing investors despite beating earnings expectations. While Apple and Amazon reported strong results, concerns over conservative forecasts and growth potential weighed heavily on market sentiment. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's long-term growth, particularly in AI-related investments.
Ross Mayfield
People
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